The COVID Impact: Real Estate in NYC

In March of 2020, COVID-19 was ruled as pandemic status by the World Health Organization (WHO). The United States later followed by issuing a national emergency. Within the span of a month, New York City became the new epicenter of the pandemic, with an infection rate and death rate exponentially higher than the rest of the country and the world. With cases rising, the governor of New York issued an executive order closing down any business considered non-essential. With this shut-down, residents were advised to stay in doors and a mask mandate was put into place. People fearing clusters of neighborhoods, packed up and moved out of the boroughs of New York City. This out-migration of citizens impacted many aspects of the city and in particular, their Real Estate Market. The pandemic caused a shift in prices, vacancies and new development. Before the pandemic, there has been a growing trend of New York State losing residents and when the pandemic began the number of people moving out only increased. Because of the crowding of the city, the out-migration of the City’s population spiked. The main borough to lose the most residents was Manhattan. Many chose to flee to neighboring boroughs, namely Brooklyn, or to surrounding suburbs and states.

Manhattan According to USPS FOIA Library, the amount of change-of-address filers increased exponentially from 2019 to 2020. The U.S. The Census Bureau shows how New York City was losing almost 400 people each day in 2019. In 2020, the USPS shows how many residents left and changed to lower-density destinations. A majority of people chose to remain in nearby suburbs or decided to take the leap and move out of the state entirely.

The above compares the in and out migration between 2019 and 2020 of Manhattan. Use the mouse to hover over the blocks of color, to reveal more information.

Brooklyn Many residents yearning for the low-density suburbs looked to nearby areas. This resulted in an increase of residents from Manhattan to Brooklyn. While many other neighborhoods within the Big Apple suffered, Brooklyn had fewer residents leave. This great influx resulted in a higher demand for listings and contracts, and lowered vacancies.

The above compares the in and out migration between 2019 and 2020 of Brooklyn. Use the mouse to hover over the blocks of color, to reveal more information.

Popular Destinations While many arrived in Brooklyn, other New Yorkers opted to leave the city entirely. Since lower-density suburbs were in demand, Long Island and New Jersey saw an influx of relocations. The USPS released how many mail-forwarding requests had occurred during the pandemic. All those who chose to leave seemed to go to Newark, Miami, Boston, and Albany, to name a few. New York City, namly Manhattan, had accounted for almost half of the USPS’s mail-forwarding requests.

The above compares the in and out migration between 2019 and 2020 of popular destinations. Use the mouse to hover over the blocks of color, to reveal more information.

With the influx of people in New York City moving, the residential real estate started to change and reflect the movement of people. The massive drive of people leaving Manhattan impacts the properties put up for sale because of the pandemic. Sales in Brooklyn is also affected during the pandemic and reaches its own highs and lows throughout the changing course of the pandemic.

Manhattan and Brooklyn both experienced an impact in their number of listings throughout 2020. However, the impact that the pandemic had on Manhattan greatly outweighed that of Brooklyn. Not only were the number of listings drastically larger, the the overall change throughout the months was also much more noticeable. To put this into perspective the population of Manhattan was around 1.6 million in 2019, while the population of Brooklyn was around 2.5 million. Even with a significantly less population, more people moved out of Manhattan and majority of the people that did resided in neigborhoods that were relatively expensive, the three major locations being the Upper East Side, Upper West Side, and Midtoen East.

Above displays the amount of monthly property listings in the boroughs of Manhattan and Brooklyn. Use the sliders to change the months and years. Rollover the circles for more information.

When the pandemic hit NYC in March, residential sales reflected that. Sales in the following month, April, dropped drastically as the city began to shut down and everything took a pause. This didn’t last long in Brooklyn as people started to move out of the city into a less crowded environment. Sales rose up again after April, some drastically with certain neighborhoods reaching sales higher than the previous year, 2019. There was a drop in sales during the second wave of the pandemic around December, however, this didn’t stop sales from rising up once again. The residential sales for 2021 started off strong as well, with a decrease in some neighborhoods in April. The sporadic changes of the pandemic shows the interest people have in living in Brooklyn.

At the beginning of the pandemic in NYC, in March, housing sales dropped and the price of buying houses increased. Looking specifically at two family houses, there were increases in average house prices during the beginnings of the pandemic. Prices began to decrease as houses were left on the market and people slowly began to look at other options of living, particularly in Brooklyn. Later in the year, near September, the housing market started to gain momentum and many people were looking to buy houses. The prices reflect this with the increase in house prices, particularly in the popular neighborhoods like Downtown Brooklyn

Above shows the average price of two family housing per month through changes in color gradient. Rollover neighborhoods to find more information. Change months and year with slider.

The pandemic didn’t only affect the house market but also affected the rent prices and the renters of NYC. With many people laid off from the pandemic and a change in the amount of people looking for housing in Brooklyn, the price to rent changed throughout the year of 2020, during the peaks of the pandemic. The rent price changes were not dramatic nor drastic, however, they do show the gradual decrease in rent prices as it didn’t make sense for landlords to increase rent prices when many of their current tenants couldn’t afford the increase in rent.

Move the mouse to run through the months. Click anywhere on the diagram to switch between the three rent types: Studio, 1BR, 2BR

This map compares the average rent prices of the last six months of 2019 to the rent prices in 2020 by month. This helps to show how the pricing changed compared to what would be considered the standard market price. Throughout the year of 2020, the rent prices change from being higher than the previous market price to being much lower than the previous year. Although the rent prices show a gradual change month by month, the prices have become relatively much cheaper compared to the year before

Residential Developments

Residential developments didn’t slow down during the pandemic. Permits were being approved and companies were still working and were busy. Development takes a while to catch up because these motions were already in progress even before the pandemic. There is already momentum to keep the business going through the pandemic. In some months, there were even more development permits issued in 2020 than in 2019. Although there was seemingly no impact during the pandemic, now, the construction and development business has begun to slow down and reflect the times of the pandemic.

The three maps representing homeless individuals in shelters, evictions, and vacant lots were the determining factors in where the low-income housing should be placed. The homeless census data map shows the increase in homeless people, in Manhattan, residing in commercial hotels during the pandemic. The current issue regarding homeless people is the lack of proper permanent housing that keeps them safe from COVID. The map is a guide to figure out which areas in New York City would benefit the most from an addition of low-income housing for those who are already homeless and looking for a safe place to stay. The map representing evictions in New York City shows the decrease in eviction numbers in 2020 because of the current moratorium. The concern of those who won’t be able to pay rent once the moratorium and risk evictions would benefit from low-income housing that is close to the previous residency. The vacant lot map displays the open lots in each borough where we would be placing our low-income social housing.

To counteract the impending eviction crisis, we can look at our analysis of eviction and homelessness rates within NYC, to observe the most critical spots. From the maps above we can see the correlation between these rates and the amount of city-owned vacant lots. Currently there are 926 acres of opportunity of city-owned land. We can utilize these vacant plots of land to create low-income social housing, more specifically modular units. Similar to Elemental’s social housing program, modular units with private balconies/green space made with sustainable material can be made affordable and easy to construct for those evicted and homeless.

Unit Layout

The way these units stack and interlock are shown by the diagram above. The accessible units make up the base of the apartment complex. The two following parts consist of the single unit and the family unit. Both types of family units are interchangeable as seen above. This housing complex would have circulation run from the left or right sides of the units, and corridors with entry to each unit on the back side. The circulation is demonstrated by the light gray-green arrow on the image above.

Playing off this concept, we have derived four unit layouts for prospective tenants. From top to bottom, we have an accessible unit, single-person unit, and two types of family units. To the left we have a 2-bedroom family unit and to the right we have a 3-bedroom family unit. The ADA-compliant unit is one floor and has a studio layout with a 10ft x 10ft private yard. These units will be located at grade-level. The single-person unit is two stories, with a living room, kitchen, full bath and laundry closet on the first floor. The second floor holds the bedroom with access to their private green balcony. The Type I Family Unit has a living room, kitchen, laundry closet, full bath and bedroom on the first floor. The second floor has storage space, full bath and an additional bedroom, with access to a 10ft x 20ft green balcony. The Type II Family unit has the standard first floor; the second floor has similar layout but has another bedroom and the standard private balcony size, 10ft x 10ft.

Our modular system of low-income permanent housing aims to tackle the current concern with homelessness during the pandemic in a quick and budget-friendly way. This system would be able to house people quickly during the pandemic and eventually adapt into permanent low-income housing for those who need and qualify for it. This system is designed so that it will be compatible with the community anywhere in the city.