New Orleans underwater by 2040 : A Way Out
New Orleans is suspected to be completely submerged by 2040 due to the rising sea levels caused by climate change. This area is susceptible to harsh climactic incidents which will only worsen over time, as seen in 2005 with Hurricane Katrina and in 2021 with Hurricane Ida. These uncontrollable forces of nature, however, only scratch the surface of the underlying complications this population faces. Despite the major million dollar efforts to preserve this historic city and its population, there is only so much damage control that can be done until the people will need a safe way out. A feasible and realistic approach is needed when attempting to relocate a large amount of people, and the first step is to look at precedents such as the Displaced New Orleans Residents Survey for clues which is discussed below.
Demographics
Shown in the graphs below, a large number of neighborhoods with high rates of poverty sit on low-elevated land and heavily flooded areas during both hurricanes. Additionally, these tend to be people who work for low wages and are considered cost burdened renters.
Also shown are the neighborhoods that rely heavily on public transportation are located within the inner-city and also situated on low-elevated land. In the face of future climate events, the failure of the transportation systems will affect many people.
Additionally, the $14.5 billion upgrades to the storm protection system has allowed most properties in New Orleans to be deemed at a lower risk of flooding, leading to lower-cost flood insurance.
2006 -2015 Crime Rates
Overall, New Orleans violent crime is ranked 49.1(US average being 22.7). Their property crime rate is 56.8 (US average being 35.4). Considered one of the top highest crime areas in the nation.
Life in a Fishbowl
August 29, 2005, Hurricane Katrina devastated the city of New Orleans. It caused flooding to 80% of the city, over 1,800 fatalities, and $125 billion of estimated economic losses. Sixteen years later, on its anniversary, Hurricane Ida brought catastrophic damage once again.
Ida resulted in 33 deaths recorded in Louisiana alone, with power outages lasting up to a month in the most heavily effected areas. In the big picture, Ida is classified as the sixth-costliest tropical cyclone on record and the fourth-costliest Atlantic hurricane in the United States, having costed at least $65.25 billion in damages. $18 billion of which was in insured losses in Louisiana.
The $14 Billion USD spent to repair the levee and flood wall system after Katrina was put to the test this late August. Although the system held up where it previously failed back in 2005, there were still breaches, resulting in the massive power outages.
On top of power outages, cleanup efforts took much longer than expected, obstructing hospital staff, food bank employees, and other critical workers. Authorities had to wait for floodwaters to recede before trucks could carry food, water, and repair supplies to affected neighborhoods.
Emergency officials in Terrebonne Parish took to Twitter to caution evacuees returning home that “there are no shelters, no electricity, very limited resources for food, gasoline and supplies and absolutely no medical services.”
For survivors of Katrina, this is a familiar setting that they hoped wouldn’t happen again. However, New Orleans’s aging infrastructure, poor government coordination, and its socio-economic factors must be resolved in order to build a more resilient city.
Floodwaters pour through a levee along the Inner Harbor Navigational Canal near downtown New Orleans.(Vincent Laforet/Pool/AP)Hurricane Katrina - 2005
Shoppers buy supplies at a grocery store in New Orleans despite the power still being out on Thursday, September 2. (Eva Marie Uzcategui/Bloomberg/Getty Images)
Hurricane Ida - 2021
Comparing the damage of Hurricane Katrina to Hurricane Ida
New Orleans has two levee systems that hold back the Mississippi River: the East Bank System and the West Bank System. Together, they cover 192 miles of actual levee, and 99 miles of flood-walls.
The Outcome of Hurricane Katrina
Levees and flood walls fell in more than 50 locations, flooding most of the city. Flooding caused power outages and transportation failures throughout the city, making the emergency response to the storm even more difficult. In particularly hard-hit areas, like the Lower Ninth Ward, the water reached depths of up to 15 ft, trapping many people in their houses, on roofs, or in attics for days before they were rescued.
The 14.5 Billion Dollar Response
After the city’s levees catastrophically failed during Hurricane Katrina, a $14.5 billion storm protection system was built by the US Army Corps of Engineers. This includes taller levees, seawalls, floodgates, pumps, and drainage. Designed to withstand strong storm surges, it survived Hurricane Ida.
The Ultimate Test: Hurricane Ida
None of the levees were recorded as failures, but some smaller ones were overtopped. Overall, there were no breaks in the system. More work recently began on a levee project to protect tens of thousands residents of LaPlace and other communities outside New Orleans' levee system. That project is not projected to be completed until 2024.
“We did not have another Katrina, and that’s something we should all be grateful for.
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However, New Orleans’s electricity grid did not fare well. The Category 4 storm brought down all eight of the high-voltage transmission lines, causing more than a million residents to lose power for weeks. The storm protection system’s success was ultimately overshadowed by the failure of the central electricity grid.
Aging electricity grids are some of the biggest hurdles in dealing with natural disasters. Across the US, most regional grids are ill-equipped because of the costly upgrades. In New Orleans, an idea to bury power lines underground after Katrina was dismissed for this very reason despite the city’s power experiencing frequent outages even without major storms. In fact, a natural gas-powered power plant opened as a backup to the network failed during Hurricane Ida as well.
How many millions of customers lost power in LA during Hurricane Ida?
What did the aftermaths really expose?
For New Orleans to effectively prepare against future climate events, we need better systems ranging from infrastructure, such as better flood-walls and power grids, to roads, and to society.
First, we have to address the inequality shown by the demographics maps above. People who are able to escape New Orleans before the hurricanes hit have adequate resources to do so, but there are many who had to stay behind. During Katrina, over 130,000 people had to stay and of those, 65,000 had to be rescued from floodwaters and over 1,000 died.
We analyzed how residents were displaced and what difficulties they experienced through a series of surveys and studies.
The Displaced New Orleans Resident's Survey
DNORS is a study of individuals and families who resided in New Orleans prior to Hurricane Katrina. It assessed the medium-term social, demographic, health, and economic outcomes of this population in the fifth year after Hurricane Katrina struck New Orleans. Fieldwork was conducted in 2009 and 2010.
Property Survey After Katrina
Emotional State After Katrina
Why did people stay behind during Hurricane Katrina?
Breakup of New Orleans Households
Household breakup following Katrina was extremely high among extended-family households, exacerbated by the high prevalence of extended-family households in New Orleans before the hurricane. In close, nuclear families, adult children and parents who were living together before may split due to the adult children’s jobs no longer being available in the disaster-hit location, forcing them, but not their parent(s), to relocate outside the region.
Conclusion
In a situation like this, it is much better to be prepared and able to retaliate when disaster strikes. The city of New Orleans has been hit before with both devastating hurricanes and have learned a lot from each one. Truthfully, these hurricanes were only a small part of the larger social issue discussed above such as poverty and crime. The first step to attempt to address the overall standard of living and care is to understand the ultimate fate of the city which is that it will eventually be underwater and uninhabitable. Political and social infrastructure will need to improve in order to to bring money in, stimulate the economy and allow for larger changes. Tourism and hospitality is one of the many great things New Orleans is known for. Since Covid-19 has restricted travel in the past year, new policies will need to be put into action to entice tourists back. Once the economy is more stabilized, the money can be put into even better infrastructure such as funding for better educations, stronger communication amongst residents in times of need, and an overall plan to help evacuate the city. The city will need to act fast as the year 2040 is only 19 years away.